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Home / Travel / US Hotel Outlook 2026

US Hotel Outlook 2026: RevPAR, Room Rates and Occupancy Forecast

Forecasters raised their 2026 outlook in August. Here is what the numbers mean in plain language, and how to book a room without overpaying.

PUBLISHED 2026-10-08 · UPDATED 2026-10-08 · TRAVEL

Short answer: On August 7, 2026, CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their 2026 US hotel forecast. They now expect revenue per available room (RevPAR) to grow 4.4% (up from 2.8%), average room rates to grow 3.1% (up from 2.0%), and occupancy to reach 63.1% (up from 62.8%). US hotels sold a record number of room nights in the first half of 2026. The forecasters expect smaller gains in the second half, driven mainly by higher room rates.

The forecast, before and after

2.8%4.4%RevPAR growth2.0%3.1%Room rate (ADR) growthPrior forecastRevised (Aug 7, 2026)

2026 US forecastPriorRevised (Aug 7) RevPAR growth2.8%4.4% ADR (room rate) growth2.0%3.1% Occupancy62.8%63.1%

The three terms, in plain language

Occupancy: the share of rooms that were booked. 63.1% means about 6 in 10 rooms are filled on an average night.
ADR (average daily rate): the average price paid for a room that was booked.
RevPAR (revenue per available room): room revenue spread across every room, booked or not. It goes up when prices rise, when more rooms fill, or both.

What drove the upgrade

Stronger leisure and business travel, plus big 2026 events

CoStar and Tourism Economics said US hotels outperformed their expectations on stronger leisure and business travel, which they tied in part to the World Cup and America 250 celebrations. They reported that the industry sold a record number of room nights in the first half of 2026, 11.4 million more than in 2025, and that room revenue rose by more than $5.4 billion. For the rest of the year they expect slightly smaller gains than in the first half, with growth coming mainly from higher room rates rather than more bookings. Investor angle: when growth comes from price instead of volume, hotel owners and brands are leaning on pricing power, which can fade if travelers start to push back on cost. This is not investment advice.

Source: Hotel Dive, Aug 7, 2026 →

What it means if you are booking a trip

Expect rates to be a few percent higher than last year. A 3.1% forecast is an average; busy cities and event weeks can be much higher.
Book early for peak dates, stay flexible for the rest. Choose a refundable rate when you can, then re-check the price before your cancellation deadline.
Compare once with the hotel's own site. Direct booking sometimes matches the price and adds perks or easier changes.
Look at the total price. Resort fees and taxes can change which hotel is cheapest.
Try midweek or shoulder-season dates if your schedule allows; they are often cheaper in the same city.

Realistic note: forecasts describe the whole US market, not your destination. Check the actual prices for your dates.

What to watch next

Three things: whether second-half rate growth holds up now that the World Cup is over; whether business travel keeps its strength; and how AI booking tools change where travelers find rooms (see our AI travel booking guide). Forecasts are revised several times a year, so check back for the next update.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 2026 US hotel forecast?

In its August 7, 2026 update, CoStar and Tourism Economics forecast US hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) to grow 4.4% in 2026, up from 2.8% in the prior forecast. Average daily rate is forecast to grow 3.1% (prior: 2.0%), and occupancy is forecast at 63.1% (prior: 62.8%).

What does RevPAR mean?

RevPAR is revenue per available room: a hotel's room revenue divided by the number of rooms it has, whether or not they were booked. It rises when either the price (ADR) or the share of rooms filled (occupancy) rises.

Why did the forecast go up?

The forecasters said US hotels outperformed expectations on stronger leisure and business travel, helped in part by the World Cup and America 250 celebrations. They reported record room nights sold in the first half of 2026.

Will hotel prices keep rising in late 2026?

The forecasters expect slightly smaller gains in the second half than in the first, with growth driven mainly by higher room rates. That suggests prices, not extra bookings, will do most of the work.